You might have seen the latest Denver Post headlines about September 2026 seeing the lowest number of home sales in over 15 years. There were 2,874 homes sold in September, down about 18% from September 2025. Ask any real estate agent about the volume of home sales in Denver right now — it's at the lowest point in over 15 years. Those of us who survive this market will be tried and tested for any kind of market.
But the number of homes that sold is only one part of this story. Over 2,300 homes left the market without selling. They expired or were withdrawn. That statistic is just as important.
For every 10 homes that sold in our market, 6.5 homes expired. That has nearly doubled from just two years ago, as you can see in the chart below.
Why are so many homes expiring instead of selling?
In my opinion, it comes down to a lack of desperation among today's home sellers.
Personally, I've had 4 listings pulled off the market (expired) in the last two years, and there was a common theme with all of them: they were investor rental properties with a low mortgage rate and monthly payment. When I talk with other agents who've had expired listings, they mention the same thing. The home sellers who "would like to sell but don't have to sell" are not very likely to sell. They want a certain price for the home, and if they don't get it, they'll just hold onto it because the rental income offsets the holding costs on the lower rate.
It's a standoff between sellers with low rates and a good payment, and buyers who want to buy but face a much higher rate and a larger monthly payment.
Why this isn't 2008
The difference between the housing market crash of 2008 and today's housing market is that today's homeowners have much better equity positions and are not in a distressed situation.
- In 2008, national homeowner equity was $10.8T and national homeowner debt was $10.4T. Many homeowners were under water.
- Today, national homeowner equity is estimated at $34.9T, and total mortgage debt is $14.4T.
- 54% of today's homeowners have at least 50% equity in their home.
- More than 40% have a mortgage rate below 4%.
- Only 1.9% of today's homeowners have negative equity, although that number is increasing.
Therefore, there aren't enough distressed sellers who feel they "have to sell." That's why we're seeing so many expired listings. The disconnect between what the market is willing to pay and what sellers are willing to sell for is more present than ever, thanks to the pendulum shift in mortgage rates.
So what gives?
Time will tell.
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